Enrolment patterns are shifting across South African higher education, raising questions about access, affordability and whether universities are responding to students’ changing needs. A recent research colloquium hosted by the Council on Higher Education (CHE) examined these trends and their implications for public and private institutions.
The discussion drew on VitalStats 2023, a publication produced by the CHE, South Africa’s statutory advisory and quality assurance body. Speakers explored changing student demographics, graduate unemployment, digital skills and the growing role of private higher education.
For students and families, the findings highlight a complex picture. University remains a popular choice, but limited places, financial constraints and changing employment requirements are putting pressure on the sector to offer more flexible routes into education.
South African Higher Education Faces Changing Demand
Professor Denyse Webbstock, senior director for institutional planning, evaluation and monitoring at the University of Johannesburg, discussed changing attitudes towards higher education globally.
“There is no longer a widely held public belief that a university degree is worth it and [people] are not sure if higher education is the answer to everything,”
Webbstock referred to a British Social Attitudes survey examining whether a degree justifies the time and money invested. According to the figures presented, 34% of respondents said it was not worth it, while 77% considered it poor value for money.
She also highlighted the slowdown in the expansion of higher education in better-resourced regions, explaining,
“It is plateauing, in better resourced regions.”
The 2026 UNESCO Higher Education Global Trends Report found that worldwide student enrolment more than doubled over two decades, reaching 269 million in 2024. However, declining youth populations and lower fertility rates are contributing to signs of slower growth.
Funding is another concern. Higher education systems are becoming too big to fund, as governments balance education against priorities such as health and defence. The sector also faces a mismatch with market needs, with some institutions failing to adapt their programmes to changing demand.
Webbstock explained,
“Some universities are not doing anything different and are not necessarily responding to changing needs in the marketplace”.
These global trends raise important questions about how institutions demonstrate the value of their programmes and ensure that graduates develop skills relevant to employment.
University Access Remains A Challenge For South African Students
Despite changing global attitudes, demand for university places remains high in South Africa. However, the number of school leavers seeking admission exceeds the places available.
“In [the] public imagination, a university education is still ‘the’ desired option but access is still an issue: the number of matriculants, or school leavers, is increasing, resulting in not enough places for first-year students. “We have a system whereby there is planned enrolment for five to six years at a time.”
The figures presented at the colloquium showed that 230,000 places were available for 650,000 school leavers, including 346,000 with bachelor’s passes.
Webbstock explained that enrolment is planned and subject to fiscal constraints.
This makes the availability of alternative routes particularly important. In many developed countries, technical and vocational education and training (TVET) colleges enrol more students than universities. South Africa has a different pattern, commonly described as an inverted pyramid.
Webbstock said, referring to a comment made by South African Minister of Higher Education and Training Buti Manamela in 2026.
“The inverted pyramid is still inverted. There are not enough alternatives. South Africa had built a system disproportionately oriented toward the minority who entered university, while the majority navigated their futures through TVET colleges, community education and training colleges, occupational programmes and workplace learning.”
The figures underline the need for a broader range of accessible, quality-assured options. TVET colleges, workplace learning and occupational programmes can offer routes for students who cannot secure university places or whose career goals require different forms of training.
For parents and school leavers, understanding these alternatives can help with decisions about further education, skills development and future employment.
Artificial Intelligence And Micro-Credentials Are Changing Higher Education
Technology is also influencing what universities teach and how they deliver programmes.
Webbstock highlighted the impact of artificial intelligence and digitalisation on higher education, saying,
“This has changed what we need to teach.”
Micro-credentials are another area of growth. According to a 2025 Coursera report cited at the colloquium, 51% of higher education leaders were integrating micro-credentials into their curricula, while 82% planned to offer them for credit.
These shorter learning options can help students develop specific skills without necessarily following a traditional degree pathway. However, employers continue to value university qualifications.
The discussion pointed to growing interest in academic programmes that respond to the needs of a digital economy, particularly in artificial intelligence, cybersecurity and renewable energy.
For students, this highlights the importance of considering both formal qualifications and opportunities to build practical, specialised skills. Universities must also ensure that new offerings meet credible academic standards and respond to genuine employment needs.
Changing Enrolment Demographics Reveal Uneven Patterns
Amos Mufamadi, data and information manager in the CHE’s research and monitoring programme, presented figures showing changes in the racial composition of first-time entering students.
Between 2018 and 2023, the number of Black first-time entering students increased from 204,716 to 215,739. Over the same period, the number of students classified as coloured decreased from 14,746 to 12,903, while students of Indian descent declined from 9,001 to 7,349. White first-time entering students fell from 30,362 to 20,624.
The figures for 2019 to 2024 showed further changes. Black first-time entering students increased from 187,171 to 250,177. Coloured students rose from 12,869 to 13,478, while students of Indian descent declined from 7,958 to 7,289. White first-time entering students decreased from 26,988 to 20,335.
These figures provide a snapshot of changing participation, although enrolment numbers alone do not explain the reasons behind each trend. They reinforce the importance of examining access, student progression and the circumstances affecting different groups.
Mufamadi also highlighted the relationship between qualifications and employment, saying,
“A major issue is that not all qualifications are equally useful in the labour market”.
Figures from Statistics South Africa cited at the colloquium indicated that young people with vocational or technical training fare better than those without schooling. However, university graduates still faced an unemployment rate of 23.9% in the first quarter of 2025.
This suggests that obtaining a tertiary qualification does not automatically guarantee employment.
Graduate Unemployment Raises Questions About Skills
Mufamadi highlighted concerns about the gap between graduate skills and employer requirements.
“Graduate unemployment has been rising. Research finds that the surge reflects a stagnant labour market, not only weak qualifications. The evidence also points to a skills mismatch: many graduates do not have the exact practical skills employers want, especially where jobs require experience, digital competence, problem-solving and workplace readiness.”
He questioned whether this mismatch could worsen as technology becomes more widely used. One concern is that many public university curricula have insufficient practical components and limited input from industry.
referencing a ministerial statement on student enrolment planning.
“As such, universities need to ensure that they respond to national skills shortages when developing enrolment plans,”
For students, the findings highlight the value of practical experience, digital competence and opportunities to apply academic knowledge in workplace settings. Employers, universities and training providers also have a role in identifying skills gaps and strengthening links between education and employment.
However, curriculum changes alone cannot resolve unemployment if the wider labour market is not creating enough suitable jobs. Institutions must therefore consider both the skills graduates develop and the employment opportunities available to them.
Private Higher Education Expands Its Share Of Enrolment
Private higher education institutions are becoming a more significant part of South Africa’s education landscape.
Dr Mandi Joubert, executive head of academics at Eduvos, which operates 12 campuses nationwide, described the challenge facing the sector as follows.
“The challenge facing South African higher education is no longer simply expanding capacity. It is creating credible, flexible and scalable pathways into and through higher education for a growing and increasingly diverse student population.”
Enrolment at private higher education institutions increased by 43% between 2020 and 2024. Public higher education enrolment grew by 1.9% over the same period.
Joubert explained the significance of this shift, saying,
“Private higher education institutions’ share of higher education enrolment increased from 16.7% to 21.9% in 2024. This means that one in five higher education students studied at a private higher education institution.”
The student populations also differ. Public institutions enrol more students aged 19 to 24, while private institutions have a majority of students aged 25 and above.
Joubert noted that the PHEI [private higher education institutions] student population include: delayed-entry students, students balancing work and study, lifelong learners and students seeking reskilling opportunities.
Joubert said,
“Alternative pathways are not merely academic pathways. They are also financial pathways. This makes flexible pathways and timing critical.”
These findings point to a more diverse student population, including people who enter higher education later, combine study with employment or return to education to develop new skills.
For families and prospective students, this means that choosing a programme involves more than comparing institutions. Timing, affordability, study formats and the ability to balance education with other responsibilities can also shape access.
Flexible Entry Routes Could Help More Students Succeed
Traditional higher education pathways often assume that students move directly from school into a degree, begin at a set time each year and study continuously on a full-time basis.
However, Eduvos data presented at the colloquium suggested that participation is more varied. Nearly half of students did not enter immediately after matric, while one in 14 entered through alternative admission routes. The figures also showed that 65.9% entered directly through degree pathways, 21% enrolled outside the traditional intake cycle and 2.6% interrupted and later resumed their studies.
Higher certificates and foundation programmes are also becoming more prominent.
Joubert raised a question about whether current systems reflect these changing patterns, asking,
“Are our policies, funding models and enrolment systems designed for the students who are actually participating?”
She argued that access policies should recognise alternative routes while maintaining quality assurance. Students need pathways that allow them to enter higher education, progress through their studies, pause when necessary and return later.
This flexibility matters for people balancing employment, family responsibilities and financial pressures. It can also help institutions respond to a wider range of student needs without lowering academic standards.
Higher Education Policy Needs To Adapt
The discussion also highlighted the role of regulation and funding in determining how quickly institutions can respond to change.
Webbstock, referring to the 2026 UNESCO report, noted that a third of students were enrolled in private higher education, particularly in Latin America and Asia Pacific. The report also identified rapid growth in Africa, presenting a regulatory challenge.
She called for institutions to be more agile in varying our academic offerings in both form and content. She argued that the policy environment was slow to respond and that the whole funding and regulatory environment is inimical to agility and adaptation.
The lack of a framework for micro-credentials and the separation between institutions and industry were also identified as barriers. However, Webbstock noted,
“There is recognition from government that change is needed.”
Michael Marshall, strategic planner at Tshwane University of Technology, highlighted the importance of aligning funding with the needs of students and institutions. He said,
“The funding framework has to speak to the environment being served.”
arguing that students at private higher education institutions should have access to funding through South Africa’s National Student Financial Aid Scheme, given that these institutions undergo the same accreditation process as public institutions.
Marshall also emphasised the need to adapt policies to changing delivery models, explaining,
“What needs to be considered for the future is different trajectories of participation in higher education and the implementation and flexibility of policies for innovation and equity.”
These discussions point to the need for policies that support different study routes while protecting educational quality and fairness. Funding arrangements, admissions systems and regulatory frameworks will all influence whether institutions can respond effectively.
What Changing Enrolment Means For Students And Universities
The colloquium highlighted a higher education sector facing several pressures at once. Demand for university places remains strong in South Africa, yet limited capacity restricts access. Meanwhile, private institutions are expanding, student demographics are changing and employers continue to seek practical skills.
For students and families, the findings underline the importance of considering a range of educational pathways. University degrees remain valuable, but TVET colleges, higher certificates, foundation programmes and other recognised routes can also support career development.
For universities, the challenge is to provide relevant programmes, strengthen links with employers and respond to students whose circumstances do not fit traditional study patterns.
Ultimately, the evidence presented by the CHE points to a need for better alignment between enrolment planning, student needs, funding and labour market realities. As participation patterns change, institutions will need to consider not only how students enter higher education, but also how they progress, complete their studies and move into employment.
